Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1520683

Foraging Behavior of Nerodia clarkii compressicauda, with Special Reference to Lingual Luring

Predators use a variety of tactics with which to obtain prey. Here, I describe lingual luring by the mangrove saltmarsh snake (Nerodia clarkii compressicauda), a somewhat unique behavior that involves the use of the tongue to attract fish prey close enough to permit their capture. The lure is characterized by considerable upward curling of the distal portion of the tongue as it protrudes from the mouth. In addition, luring tongue flicks are significantly greater in duration than chemosensory tongue flicks. Both visual and chemical cues are sufficient to stimulate lingual luring, the latter more so than the former. However, both types of cues together have a strong synergistic effect on elicitation of the behavior. Luring behavior presents primarily a visual stimulus, as its frequency was reduced in the dark. Although prey density had no effect on the exhibition of luring by these snakes, prey density did have an effect on their activity level and their choice of foraging sites. N. c. compressicauda was a fairly active forager under the conditions tested in these studies, but its use of a largely sit-and-wait tactic such as predatory luring indicates that this species uses more of a mixed foraging strategy. The foraging behavior of the snakes differed at different levels of habitat structural density, created by using simulated prop roots in a laboratory arena. When no prop-root structure was present, the snakes rarely ventured into open water. However, they spent significantly more time in the water if prop roots were present. Such habitat structure may serve as protection from larger predators that may be impeded by it

Intracontinental deformation in southern Africa during the late Cretaceous

Intracontinental deformation accommodated along major lithospheric scale shear zone systems and within associated extensional basins has been well documented within West, Central and East Africa during the Late Cretaceous. The nature of this deformation has been established by studies of the tectonic architecture of sedimentary basins preserved in this part of Africa. In southern Africa, where the post break-up history has been dominated by major erosion, little evidence for post-break-up tectonics has been preserved in the onshore geology. Here we present the results of 38 new apatite fission track analyses from the Damara region of northern Namibia and integrate these new data with our previous results that were focused on specific regions or sections only to comprehensively document the thermo-tectonic history of this region since continental break-up in the Early Cretaceous. The apatite fission track ages range from 449 ± 20 Ma to 59 ± 3 Ma, with mean confined track lengths between 14.61 ± 0.1 μm (SD 0.95 μm) to 10.83 ± 0.33 μm (SD 2.84 μm). The youngest ages (c. 80-60 Ma) yield the shortest mean track lengths, and combined with their spatial distribution, indicate major cooling during the latest Cretaceous. A simple numerical thermal model is used to demonstrate that this cooling is consistent with the combined effects of heating caused by magmatic underplating, related to the Etendeka continental flood volcanism associated with rifting and the opening of the South Atlantic, and enhanced erosion caused by major reactivation of major lithospheric structures within southern Africa during a key period of plate kinematic change that occurred in the South Atlantic and SW Indian ocean basins between 87-56 Ma. This phase of intraplate tectonism in northern Namibia, focused in discrete structurally defined zones, is coeval with similar phases elsewhere in Africa and suggests some form of trans-continental linkage between these lithospheric zones

Carrion Beetles (Coleoptera: Silphidae) of Wisconsin

The first comprehensive faunal survey of the carrion beetles (Coleoptera: Silphidae) of Wisconsin is presented. Six genera and 14 species are recorded from the state, including a new state record, Heterosilpha ramosa (Say). Nicrophorus americanus Olivier was not recovered during this study. An annotated checklist includes species-specific geographical and temporal distributions, remarks on foods and habitat, and counties of specimen collections for each species

Wireless Sensor Network for Wine Fermentation

This project implements an automated temperature monitoring system for wine fermentation which is affordable, easy to use, and scalable to typical small winery setups. To realize these requirements, we implemented the system as a wireless sensor network utilizing commercial off-the-shelf hardware. Temperature and system diagnostic information is communicated wirelessly in a peer-to-peer network topology such that all information flows toward an aggregating server. The server makes the temperature information available over the Internet via a web application and alerts the winemaker by email when the temperature has left acceptable bounds that the winemaker may configure. This project also involved materials selection and enclosure design performed cooperatively by or with a materials engineering student, which we briefly discuss. However, we focus mainly on the design, implementation, and assessment of the system’s electronics, software, and network protocols

Are Special Processes at Work in the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones?

Probably not. Frequency distributions of intensification and dissipation developed from synthetic open-ocean tropical cyclone data show no evidence of significant departures from exponential distributions, though there is some evidence for a fat tail of dissipation rates. This suggests that no special factors govern high intensification rates and that tropical cyclone intensification and dissipation are controlled by statistically random environmental and internal variability.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS1032244

Rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulated by a cloud-resolving model

The results of a series of cloud-resolving radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations are presented. The RCE simulations, used as an idealization for the mean tropical climate, are run for a wide range of prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), from 21[superscript o]C to 36[superscript o]C, representing the range of past, present, and, possibly, future mean tropical SSTs. The RCE with constant Coriolis parameter f is contrasted with nonrotating RCE. The Coriolis parameter is artificially increased from typical values in the Tropics by about one order of magnitude to allow multiple tropical cyclones (TCs) to coexist in a relatively small 2300 × 2300 km[superscript 2] domain with a 3 km horizontal grid spacing. Nonrotating RCE is also simulated, but using a substantially smaller, 384 × 384 km[superscript 2] domain. Rotating RCE, which we nickname “TC World,” contains from 8 to 26 TCs with the average number of TCs monotonically decreasing with increasing SST. At the same time, the TCs' size, intensity, and per-TC precipitation rate tend to increase in response to increasing SST. For example, the average per-TC kinetic energy and precipitation rate tend to double for every 6[superscript o]C SST increase. These results are consistent with scaling laws in which TC velocities and inner core diameters scale with the potential intensity and its ratio to the Coriolis parameter, respectively, while the separation between cyclone centers appears to scale with the deformation radius. It is also found that the outflow temperature of TC's, as defined as the height of the local maximum of the upper-troposphere cloud fraction, remains relatively invariant with SST. The cold-point tropopause height in TC World is found to be about 2 km higher than the corresponding height in nonrotating RCE.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS1032244

Statistical modelling of transcript profiles of differentially regulated genes

Background: The vast quantities of gene expression profiling data produced in microarray studies, and the more precise quantitative PCR, are often not statistically analysed to their full potential. Previous studies have summarised gene expression profiles using simple descriptive statistics, basic analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the clustering of genes based on simple models fitted to their expression profiles over time. We report the novel application of statistical non-linear regression modelling techniques to describe the shapes of expression profiles for the fungus Agaricus bisporus, quantified by PCR, and for E. coli and Rattus norvegicus, using microarray technology. The use of parametric non-linear regression models provides a more precise description of expression profiles, reducing the "noise" of the raw data to produce a clear "signal" given by the fitted curve, and describing each profile with a small number of biologically interpretable parameters. This approach then allows the direct comparison and clustering of the shapes of response patterns between genes and potentially enables a greater exploration and interpretation of the biological processes driving gene expression. Results: Quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-derived time-course data of genes were modelled. "Splitline" or "broken-stick" regression identified the initial time of gene up-regulation, enabling the classification of genes into those with primary and secondary responses. Five-day profiles were modelled using the biologically-oriented, critical exponential curve, y(t) = A + (B + Ct)Rt + ε. This non-linear regression approach allowed the expression patterns for different genes to be compared in terms of curve shape, time of maximal transcript level and the decline and asymptotic response levels. Three distinct regulatory patterns were identified for the five genes studied. Applying the regression modelling approach to microarray-derived time course data allowed 11% of the Escherichia coli features to be fitted by an exponential function, and 25% of the Rattus norvegicus features could be described by the critical exponential model, all with statistical significance of p < 0.05. Conclusion: The statistical non-linear regression approaches presented in this study provide detailed biologically oriented descriptions of individual gene expression profiles, using biologically variable data to generate a set of defining parameters. These approaches have application to the modelling and greater interpretation of profiles obtained across a wide range of platforms, such as microarrays. Through careful choice of appropriate model forms, such statistical regression approaches allow an improved comparison of gene expression profiles, and may provide an approach for the greater understanding of common regulatory mechanisms between genes

Grey swan tropical cyclones

We define ‘grey swan’ tropical cyclones as high-impact storms that would not be predicted based on history but may be foreseeable using physical knowledge together with historical data. Here we apply a climatological–hydrodynamic method to estimate grey swan tropical cyclone storm surge threat for three highly vulnerable coastal regions. We identify a potentially large risk in the Persian Gulf, where tropical cyclones have never been recorded, and larger-than-expected threats in Cairns, Australia, and Tampa, Florida. Grey swan tropical cyclones striking Tampa, Cairns and Dubai can generate storm surges of about 6 m, 5.7 m and 4 m, respectively, with estimated annual exceedance probabilities of about 1/10,000. With climate change, these probabilities can increase significantly over the twenty-first century (to 1/3,100–1/1,100 in the middle and 1/2,500–1/700 towards the end of the century for Tampa). Worse grey swan tropical cyclones, inducing surges exceeding 11 m in Tampa and 7 m in Dubai, are also revealed with non-negligible probabilities, especially towards the end of the century

In The City Of Sighs And Tears

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/4138/thumbnail.jp